Comments on: Post-singularity summit http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/ Thu, 09 Sep 2010 11:22:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Shane Legg http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20023 Shane Legg Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:00:34 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20023 Yeah, it was good. Quite a lot bigger than last year and the workshop afterwards meant a lot more time to talk to people. Ben mentioned to me that he was trying to arrange some more funding. Yeah, it was good. Quite a lot bigger than last year and the workshop afterwards meant a lot more time to talk to people. Ben mentioned to me that he was trying to arrange some more funding.

]]> By: Joel Pitt http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20022 Joel Pitt Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:25:18 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20022 I really wish I could have made it! I enjoyed the 2008 Summit (and got to meet you extremely briefly and the pre-summit event), but this one seems a lot more exciting from the responses I've seen online. I'm working with Ben Goertzel on OpenCog still, and currently we're in the position of trying to get more funding, so sympathise with your sentiments. It's proving to be a hard sell, but if all else fails I'll head back into academia and get a narrow AI post-doc ;-) I really wish I could have made it! I enjoyed the 2008 Summit (and got to meet you extremely briefly and the pre-summit event), but this one seems a lot more exciting from the responses I’ve seen online.

I’m working with Ben Goertzel on OpenCog still, and currently we’re in the position of trying to get more funding, so sympathise with your sentiments. It’s proving to be a hard sell, but if all else fails I’ll head back into academia and get a narrow AI post-doc ;-)

]]> By: jofr http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20019 jofr Tue, 13 Oct 2009 19:49:40 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20019 In a sense, the singularity is already here. Each of us is a small singularity, a small exceptional 1/x point where different universes meet and worlds collide. In a sense, the singularity is already here. Each of us is a small singularity, a small exceptional 1/x point where different universes meet and worlds collide.

]]> By: Roko http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20018 Roko Tue, 13 Oct 2009 06:34:41 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20018 From what I remember: machine learning techniques of certain particular kinds, such as temporal difference learning, are actually found in the human brain. The correspondence between theoretical results and what you see in experiments is very good. Therefore we will soon be able to build a mouse-level AI based upon these ML techniques. From what I remember: machine learning techniques of certain particular kinds, such as temporal difference learning, are actually found in the human brain. The correspondence between theoretical results and what you see in experiments is very good. Therefore we will soon be able to build a mouse-level AI based upon these ML techniques.

]]> By: Kevembuangga http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20017 Kevembuangga Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:45:50 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20017 The Jim Simmons & als "crowd" certainly has the $10 million you are wishing for (and even more...), kind of an acid test for your optimism, as always "the proof is in the pudding"! BTW, I am an optimist too somehow, I think that the "key issues resolution" may spring from about anywhere, in the public view or not, but that conventional researchers, well funded or not, are too obtuse(*) to recognize the deal, may be even after it will have emerged. And since I don't believe in the exponential burst of AI improvment I think it may go unnoticed for a while. *) Look how very brilliant people got <a href="http://golem.ph.utexas.edu/category/2009/09/towards_a_computeraided_system.html#c027623" rel="nofollow">embroiled </a> in "metaphysics haggling" over a seemingly sensible idea. The Jim Simmons & als “crowd” certainly has the $10 million you are wishing for (and even more…), kind of an acid test for your optimism, as always “the proof is in the pudding”!
BTW, I am an optimist too somehow, I think that the “key issues resolution” may spring from about anywhere, in the public view or not, but that conventional researchers, well funded or not, are too obtuse(*) to recognize the deal, may be even after it will have emerged.
And since I don’t believe in the exponential burst of AI improvment I think it may go unnoticed for a while.

*) Look how very brilliant people got embroiled in “metaphysics haggling” over a seemingly sensible idea.

]]> By: Shane Legg http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20016 Shane Legg Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:57:21 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20016 Oh, if your point is that some group could already be trying this below the radar, then yeah sure, I agree, it could well be happening already. Indeed, I've already been approached by a low profile group with very significant resources that is interested in this kind of thing. Oh, if your point is that some group could already be trying this below the radar, then yeah sure, I agree, it could well be happening already. Indeed, I’ve already been approached by a low profile group with very significant resources that is interested in this kind of thing.

]]> By: Tim Tyler http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20015 Tim Tyler Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:41:31 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20015 Answerbots, oracles, marketbots and security agencies have lots of cash, access to enormous computer systems, laden with mountaines of training data - and have many smart employees. They face enormously difficult problems, have a lot to gain, and are well placed to make progress. That these folk haven't pre-announced any product breakthroughs yet means rather little. James Harris Simons doesn't do announcements. His computer systems toil in secrecy and obscurity - and it's much the same story with the security agencies. Answerbots, oracles, marketbots and security agencies have lots of cash, access to enormous computer systems, laden with mountaines of training data – and have many smart employees.

They face enormously difficult problems, have a lot to gain, and are well placed to make progress. That these folk haven’t pre-announced any product breakthroughs yet means rather little. James Harris Simons doesn’t do announcements. His computer systems toil in secrecy and obscurity – and it’s much the same story with the security agencies.

]]> By: Vladimir Nesov http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20014 Vladimir Nesov Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:27:56 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20014 Useful ideas tend to be not radically new, yet hard to notice for the first time. It's on a good day that the lasting output of a research group over a decade is a couple of tools the benefit future progress, while a successful application would be built on understanding of hundreds of such ideas collected all over the history. Useful ideas tend to be not radically new, yet hard to notice for the first time. It’s on a good day that the lasting output of a research group over a decade is a couple of tools the benefit future progress, while a successful application would be built on understanding of hundreds of such ideas collected all over the history.

]]> By: Shane Legg http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20011 Shane Legg Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:05:01 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20011 Thanks for the link. It might be a while as the next few months are scary busy... :-( Thanks for the link.

It might be a while as the next few months are scary busy… :-(

]]> By: Shane Legg http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20010 Shane Legg Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:03:26 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20010 Have we ever agreed about anything? Have we ever agreed about anything?

]]> By: Shane Legg http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20009 Shane Legg Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:01:44 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20009 It largely boils down to how you think an AGI will be built. If you think it requires a number of radically new ideas and a huge programming effort to build everything. Then, yes, AGI is a long way off and $10 million won't make any real difference. We might get there in 2050... if we're really fast. That's not, however, my view. I think that an AGI can be built by integrating and extending a number of existing machine learning technologies, using what we know about the brain as an architectural guide. I estimate 10 years before this approach catches on and has a significant probability of success. It largely boils down to how you think an AGI will be built. If you think it requires a number of radically new ideas and a huge programming effort to build everything. Then, yes, AGI is a long way off and $10 million won’t make any real difference. We might get there in 2050… if we’re really fast.

That’s not, however, my view. I think that an AGI can be built by integrating and extending a number of existing machine learning technologies, using what we know about the brain as an architectural guide. I estimate 10 years before this approach catches on and has a significant probability of success.

]]> By: Vladimir Nesov http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20006 Vladimir Nesov Sat, 10 Oct 2009 13:05:50 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20006 > Plenty of people are rich enough to try to build an AGI. Most are smart enough to see it's a drip in the ocean, and that realistic impact requires much more. Do you actually believe that any given team has nontrivial chance of getting there? (Where? Overconfident expectation of hitting a wrong target...) All of them is scary, any one of them is a priori insignificant. > Plenty of people are rich enough to try to build an AGI.

Most are smart enough to see it’s a drip in the ocean, and that realistic impact requires much more. Do you actually believe that any given team has nontrivial chance of getting there? (Where? Overconfident expectation of hitting a wrong target…) All of them is scary, any one of them is a priori insignificant.

]]> By: Kevembuangga http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20005 Kevembuangga Sat, 10 Oct 2009 12:26:24 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20005 <i>I think that $10 million would fund a small team for a decade to tackle many of the core issues.</i> Given the HUUUUGE amount of, let's say, <i>moderately useful</i> :-) research which has already been done in AI, machine learning, statistics, pattern recognition, linguistics, neurophysiology, etc, etc, I see this as utterly delusional, a <b>big</b> cognitive bias which would have to be redressed, by "overcomingbias" may be, LOL... Why the heck would the small team, however smart and motivated they could be, "magically" stumble on the <i>core issues</i> and solve them? I think that $10 million would fund a small team for a decade to tackle many of the core issues.

Given the HUUUUGE amount of, let’s say, moderately useful :-) research which has already been done in AI, machine learning, statistics, pattern recognition, linguistics, neurophysiology, etc, etc, I see this as utterly delusional, a big cognitive bias which would have to be redressed, by “overcomingbias” may be, LOL…
Why the heck would the small team, however smart and motivated they could be, “magically” stumble on the core issues and solve them?

]]> By: Shane Legg http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20004 Shane Legg Sat, 10 Oct 2009 11:40:49 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20004 Norvig believes that AGI is too far off to be that worried about it. (Moshe told me this based on personal conversations he's had with Norvig, and it's consistent with what I've heard from Norvig himself in talks). I don't know about Pell. Simons is plenty rich enough, but has he ever expressed any interest in AGI? Does he even know what it is? Plenty of people are rich enough to try to build an AGI. I've read that over 100,000 people have in excess of $30 million, and I think that $10 million would fund a small team for a decade to tackle many of the core issues. You don't need to be ultra rich like Thiel to go for this, it's just that people in his category can try without risking a noticeable amount of their total wealth. They could even fund a few competing teams if they're not sure who to back. Though even they need to be careful: if AGI moves before they expect it to, or it's not a team they are backing, it may be impossible to buy in even with all their wealth. Norvig believes that AGI is too far off to be that worried about it. (Moshe told me this based on personal conversations he’s had with Norvig, and it’s consistent with what I’ve heard from Norvig himself in talks).

I don’t know about Pell.

Simons is plenty rich enough, but has he ever expressed any interest in AGI? Does he even know what it is?

Plenty of people are rich enough to try to build an AGI. I’ve read that over 100,000 people have in excess of $30 million, and I think that $10 million would fund a small team for a decade to tackle many of the core issues. You don’t need to be ultra rich like Thiel to go for this, it’s just that people in his category can try without risking a noticeable amount of their total wealth. They could even fund a few competing teams if they’re not sure who to back. Though even they need to be careful: if AGI moves before they expect it to, or it’s not a team they are backing, it may be impossible to buy in even with all their wealth.

]]> By: Tim Tyler http://www.vetta.org/2009/10/post-singularity-summit/comment-page-1/#comment-20003 Tim Tyler Sat, 10 Oct 2009 07:08:53 +0000 http://www.vetta.org/?p=653#comment-20003 People like Peter Norvig, Barney Pell, James Harris Simons appear to have secured funding. Organisations like those are unlikley to fund academic research in the area, though - such research would be likely to provide your results to your competitors. There does appear to be some government funding available from military sources. People like Peter Norvig, Barney Pell, James Harris Simons appear to have secured funding.

Organisations like those are unlikley to fund academic research in the area, though – such research would be likely to provide your results to your competitors.

There does appear to be some government funding available from military sources.

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